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Abstract In spite of the mean warming trend over the last few decades and its amplification in the Arctic, some studies have found no robust decline or even a slight increase in wintertime cold air outbreaks over North America. But fossil evidence from warmer paleoclimate periods indicates that the interior of North America never dropped below freezing even in the depths of winter, which implies that the maintenance of cold air outbreaks is unlikely to continue indefinitely with future warming. To identify key mechanisms affecting cold air outbreaks and understand how and why they will change in a warmer climate, we examine the development of North American cold air outbreaks in both a preindustrial and a roughly 8×CO₂scenario using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). We observe a sharp drop-off in the wintertime temperature distribution at the freezing temperature, suppressing below-freezing conditions in the warmer climate and above-freezing conditions in the preindustrial case. The disappearance of Arctic sea ice and loss of the near-surface temperature inversion dramatically decrease the availability of below-freezing air in source regions. Using an air parcel trajectory analysis, we demonstrate a remarkable similarity in both the dynamics and diabatic effects acting on cold air masses in the two climate scenarios. Diabatic temperature evolution along cold air outbreak trajectories is a competition between cooling from longwave radiation and warming from boundary layer mixing. Surprisingly, while both diabatic effects strengthen in the warmer climate, the balance remains the same, with a net cooling of about −6 K over 10 days. Significance StatementWe compare a preindustrial climate scenario to a much warmer climate circa the year 2300 under high emissions to understand the physical processes that influence the coldest wintertime temperatures and how they will change with warming. We find that enhanced warming in the Arctic, and particularly over the Arctic Ocean due to the loss of wintertime sea ice, dramatically reduces the availability of cold air to be swept into North America. By tracing these cold air masses as they travel, we also find that they experience the same total amount of cooling in the much warmer climate as they did in the preindustrial climate even though many of the individual heating and cooling processes have gotten stronger. 

Objects that deform a liquid interface are subject to capillary forces, which can be harnessed to assemble the objects1–4. Once assembled, such structures are generally static. Here we dynamically modulate these forces to move objects in programmable two-dimensional patterns. We 3D-print devices containing channels that trap floating objects using repulsive capillary forces5,6, then move these devices vertically in a water bath. Because the channel cross-sections vary with height, the trapped objects can be steered in two dimensions. The device and interface therefore constitute a simple machine that converts vertical to lateral motion. We design machines that translate, rotate and separate multiple floating objects and that do work on submerged objects through cyclic vertical motion. We combine these elementary machines to make centimetre-scale compound machines that braid micrometre-scale filaments into prescribed topologies, including non-repeating braids. Capillary machines are distinct from mechanical, optical or fluidic micromanipulators in that a meniscus links the object to the machine. Therefore, the channel shapes need only be controlled on the scale of the capillary length (a few millimetres), even when the objects are microscopic. Consequently, such machines can be built quickly and inexpensively. This approach could be used to manipulate micrometre-scale particles or to braid microwires for high-frequency electronics.